Gold has been trapped in a sideways range since May this is a consequence of frozen drivers. After the vertical rally to ATH, the market had already priced in the Fed's easing cycle and strong central bank demand. From there, the picture hit a plateau: US real yields and the dollar are constrained, inflation expectations are uncertain, and the pace of rate cuts remains unclear. Under these conditions, gold has neither new upward momentum nor reason for a deep decline.



To break out of the sideways range, a shift in one direction is needed - either deeper and more obvious dollar weakness or a decline in yields, or a new demand/geopolitical shock. A drop in real yields and dollar weakening is essentially fuel for a simultaneous rise in gold and risk assets, while rising real yields/dollar strengthening creates pressure on BTC and stocks while supporting gold as insurance.
IN-6.88%
MAY-1.33%
RLY-1%
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