Once upon a time, the idea that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates due to political influence would have been considered fanciful. As the guardian of the dollar, the Federal Reserve bears the heavy responsibility of maintaining monetary stability. However, the current global economic landscape is undergoing subtle changes.

Except for Japan, major economies have begun to enter a rate-cutting cycle, with the Eurozone cutting rates significantly by hundreds of basis points, creating a notable interest rate differential with the US dollar. From a market perspective, as long as the inflation rate remains below 3%, real interest rates may hover between 1% and 2%, a state that has persisted for quite some time.

However, making judgments solely based on market behavior may be overly simplistic. The current U.S. economy faces multiple challenges: rising fiscal deficits, tariff revenues unable to cover interest expenses, and a debt accumulation rate showing no signs of slowing down. Although real interest rates are positive, market enthusiasm has not diminished but rather increased under the impetus of stimulus policies.

Recently, the United States has reached framework agreements with several major economies, and there is hope for a reduction in tariffs in the short term, which may alleviate supply shocks. The temporary tariff agreement with China is also being extended. These factors provide some buffer space for the Federal Reserve's decision-making.

Unless there are significant unforeseen events, as long as the inflation data for July and August remains relatively stable and meets or falls below market expectations, the likelihood of a rate cut in September will greatly increase. The Federal Reserve is seeking a balance between economic realities and political pressures, and its decisions will have far-reaching impacts on global financial markets.

In this complex economic environment, every move by the Federal Reserve affects global nerves. It not only has to weigh domestic economic conditions but also needs to consider the global economic landscape and political factors. The future direction of monetary policy will undoubtedly become the focus of market attention.