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Even if 1% of pension funds are allocated to BTC, it could drive its price up to $194,000.
A recent executive order from the Trump administration, which allows institutions and private equity to invest in cryptocurrency through 401K retirement plans, is being seen as a potential "nuclear button" that could ignite the cryptocurrency market.
According to a report by asset management company Bitwise, 401(k) and other fixed contribution retirement plans manage approximately $12.2 trillion in assets.
If 1% of the assets in the plan (approximately $122 billion) is allocated to BTC, its price could potentially soar to around $194,000; if the allocation reaches 10% (approximately $1.22 trillion), the price of #BTC could even touch $868,700.
Bitwise emphasizes that, given the historical pattern of Bitcoin's sensitivity to global ETP (exchange-traded product) capital flows, even a 1% allocation change could lead to an approximate 63% increase in Bitcoin's price.
It is worth noting that cryptocurrencies were once a "no-go zone" for 401(k) retirement plans. However, the executive order signed by Trump on August 7 directed the Department of Labor, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Treasury Department to expand the accessibility of alternative assets in 401(k) plans, placing cryptocurrencies alongside real estate and private equity, thereby changing this status.
The command also requires regulatory agencies to clarify fiduciary duty standards and eliminate legal barriers, thereby paving the way for incorporating cryptocurrencies into investment options while ensuring that plan sponsors can seek maximum benefits for depositors.
If implemented as planned, this regulatory change, combined with the massive asset scale, could prompt companies like BlackRock and Fidelity to choose to launch spot Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs for their clients, whether as a standard option or through a self-directed brokerage window, which will open new channels for capital inflow.
According to the data from the Investment Company Institute, employer-sponsored defined contribution accounts hold approximately $12.2 trillion, with 401(k) accounts holding about $8.7-8.9 trillion. This figure is significantly higher than the current global cryptocurrency market (valued at $4 trillion). Even a 1% fluctuation ($87 billion) is enough to reshape the supply-demand balance.
In summary, the scale of the American 401(k) system is more than twice that of the existing cryptocurrency market. If even a portion of these funds (just 1%) were invested in the crypto market, it could not only bring massive amounts of capital to the crypto market but could also trigger significant price fluctuations.