US - China Trade Truce Gets Tariff Extension Until Novembe

The US-China trade truce has been pushed out to November 10, 2025, and the timing could not have been tighter. The order came through just hours before the last deadline expired. It is the second tariff extension this year, keeping things on a relatively even keel for now. Tariffs remain at 30% on Chinese goods heading to the US and 10% on US goods going the other way. That’s far from ideal. But it is much better than the triple-digit rates that nearly took hold earlier this year. Without it, tariffs could have jumped to 145% and 125%, numbers that many economists said would have looked like a trade embargo in everything but name.

The road here has been anything but smooth. In February, tariffs started rising sharply over fentanyl-related disputes, peaking in April at those same near-embargo levels. It was the Geneva talks in May that pulled things back, with both sides stepping away from their highest tariffs and agreeing to a 90-day truce. But the peace was fragile, with disputes resurfacing in London the following month before more progress was made in Stockholm at the end of July.

Rare Earth Elements Stockholding

Rare earth elements have been one of the biggest sticking points. China holds around 92% of global processing capacity, which puts the US in a tough spot given its importance for EVs, wind turbines, smartphones, and defense equipment. The licensing process for exports to US companies has eased slightly. Approvals were at 60% in early July, compared to just 25% in June, but restrictions remain pointed. Ford even had to halt production at a Chicago plant due to shortages.

Nvidia Semiconductor Deal

Nvidia and AMD struck a deal to pay 15% of their China AI chip revenue to the US government in exchange for export licenses. It’s expected to generate around $1 billion a quarter if sales recover. The arrangement has its critics, but supporters see it as a way to keep US companies in the market and avoid ceding ground entirely to Chinese firms.

Why China Gets Breathing Space

The US trade deficit with China was still huge $295.5 billion, last year. Trump has been pressing China to buy more US goods, especially agricultural products like soybeans. For US businesses, the tariff extension brings market relief, especially ahead of the holiday season. Industries such as electronics and toys depend heavily on manufacturing in China. The extra time helps with supply chain planning. This remains the same even if tariffs remain above pre-conflict levels.

Looking ahead, the November deadline lines up with several diplomatic events, including the APEC summit in late October. There’s talk of a possible Trump-Xi meeting, though nothing is confirmed. Major issues remain unresolved. There are structural trade imbalances, tech competition, and the risk of new tariffs on goods routed through third countries.

For now, this is less a resolution and more a pause button. The tariff extension buys both sides time, but whether it leads to anything lasting is far from certain. The next three months will show whether this trade truce can shift from temporary damage control to something more stable or if it’s just another round in the ongoing US-China trade standoff.