2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Macroeconomic Stability, Bitcoin Breaks New Highs

The U.S. economy remained stable in December, with major economic indicators generally meeting expectations. Non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, slightly above expectations; the CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month in November, both in line with expectations. The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.50% as scheduled. However, the Federal Reserve subsequently indicated that the rate cut in 2025 might be narrowed to 50 basis points, which triggered short-term market fluctuations.

The latest economic outlook released by the Federal Reserve shows that the U.S. economic growth rate is expected to be 2.5% and 2.1% for this year and next, respectively, which is an upward adjustment from the September forecast. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2% and 4.3%, slightly down. The inflation rate is projected to be 2.4% and 2.5%, still above the long-term target of 2%. This indicates that the U.S. economy is generally stable, but inflation still needs further alleviation.

The December PMI data is mixed. The services PMI preliminary value reached 58.5, far exceeding expectations and hitting a new high since the pandemic. However, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 48.3, below expectations, mainly affected by insufficient export demand. The composite PMI preliminary value is 56.6, better than expected.

Against the backdrop of macroeconomic stability, both the US stock market and the crypto market have reached historical highs. The Nasdaq Index has surpassed 20,000 points, and the stock prices of several tech giants have hit new records. The price of Bitcoin has first broken through the $100,000 mark, and Ethereum has also surpassed $4,000. This largely reflects the bullish sentiment among investors.

Looking ahead to 2025, several institutions hold an optimistic view on the crypto market. Some analyses predict that Bitcoin may reach around $200,000. Key factors include the continuous inflow of institutional investors, improvements in the regulatory environment, and changes in the role of Bitcoin in asset allocation. Additionally, the applications of stablecoins and artificial intelligence in the encryption field are also worth noting.

Although the outlook is optimistic, investors still need to be wary of short-term market volatility risks. As the crypto market matures gradually, 2025 may be more noteworthy than 2024. Bitcoin is expected to gain further recognition in mainstream finance, and stablecoins may play a more important role in real-world applications.