Overall, after the market has experienced a strong rebound, investors are currently facing dual concerns of rising tariffs and weakening employment. Fortunately, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut is increasing, and the potential fiscal stimulus from the newly passed tax bill may provide a more favorable environment as we move towards 2026. In the S&P 500 index, the first support level is the 8-week MA, currently around 6,200 points, followed by the previous historical high of 6,135 points. If both of these support levels are breached, we may see the index dip all the way down to the bull run support range (currently between 5,850 and 6,000 points). However, even if it pulls back to this level, it does not mean that the bull run is over. If it were already November 2025, I might have a different view, as the stock market cycle in presidential election years would be nearing its end, but currently, there are still about 4 months to go.

Bitcoin unfortunately broke down from its compression range, but for now (temporarily) it has halted its decline at the 8-week moving average (blue line). This is noteworthy because when Bitcoin is in a trending market, if the closing price falls below this moving average, it often further dips into the bull market support zone (the red and yellow moving averages) area, which is currently between $101,500 and $104,500. It is worth mentioning that even if it does drop there, it would still be considered a normal pullback, and if we really do get to that level, it could be the last excellent buying opportunity of this bull run.