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The ETH merge brings challenges and opportunities for the fork ETHPoW.
The potential chain forks and their impacts from the ETH merge
Ethereum is set to undergo a merge in September 2022, transitioning from a proof of work (PoW) to a proof of stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. This transition may lead to a blockchain fork, resulting in two tokens: ETH2 and ETHPoW.
The ETHPoW chain may face technical challenges and long-term viability issues, but in the short term, it can provide speculative opportunities for traders. However, the ETHPoW chain is likely to become a minority in terms of token price and economic usage.
After the merge, Ethereum will need to run two clients: the consensus layer and the execution layer. Stakers will temporarily be unable to withdraw their staked ETH, which may take another 6 to 12 months.
Some miners oppose the shutdown of PoW because they will be excluded from the Ethereum system. Large Chinese miner Guo Hongcai stated that he may continue mining on the ETHPoW chain.
The Ice Age mechanism causes the difficulty of PoW mining to increase exponentially, ultimately preventing the chain from effectively scaling. If the ETHPoW chain is to exist in the long term, a hard fork is needed to remove the effects of the Ice Age. This presents legitimacy issues for ETHPoW and requires the development of a new client and convincing exchanges to support it.
Currently, approximately 14 million ETH is locked on the beacon chain. On the ETHPoW chain, this portion of funds may be permanently lost unless a hard fork occurs.
The choice of stablecoin issuers may determine the winners after the fork. Major stablecoin issuers seem to support ETH2, which means that DeFi applications relying on stablecoins on ETHPoW may collapse.
ETH holders may quickly sell ETHPoW tokens. However, theoretically, the best strategy after the merge might be to purchase ETHPoW as soon as possible, as it could be more valuable than other ERC-20 tokens on the ETHPoW chain.
There may be "risk-free" trading opportunities around the merger, but the actual execution is quite complex. It is necessary to manage your private keys, interact directly with the smart contracts on ETHPoW, and ensure that the transactions are not executed repeatedly on the ETH2 chain.
Overall, the ETHPoW fork, although facing challenges, may bring short-term speculative opportunities to the market. The ETH/ETHPoW trading pair could become a popular trading pair after the fork.