Pi Network: Mobile Mining Project Set to Launch on Mainnet, Valuation Analysis

Pi Network is a new type of cryptocurrency project based on mobile devices, aimed at lowering the barriers to participation in cryptocurrency. Unlike traditional Mining, users can "mine" through a mobile app, significantly reducing technical and cost barriers.

The project was founded in 2019, but has not launched its Mainnet for a long time, and mobile mining has been in a "digging air" state. Its token acquisition mechanism mainly relies on recommending new users, rather than the common blockchain consensus mechanisms.

After six years of development, Pi Network has finally announced the launch of the Mainnet, and several trading platforms will also support token trading. This has sparked discussions about the valuation of Pi coin.

Pi Coin Supply Analysis

The Pi Network has not officially disclosed a total supply cap, but based on community information, it is generally believed that the maximum supply is around 100 billion coins. Calculated at 1 dollar per coin, the fully diluted market cap could reach 100 billion dollars.

As of the end of 2024, Pi is still in the Mainnet closed period, and the actual circulating supply is limited:

• August 2023: Approximately 1.97 billion coins migrated to the Mainnet (1.29 billion coins were locked)
• September 2024: Cumulative migration increased to 4.07 billion pieces (locked 1.35 billion pieces)
• January 2025: A total of 5.56 billion have been migrated, approximately 660 million are still locked.

The white paper mentions that when the open Mainnet is launched, users may have accumulated 10-20 billion PI through Mining. This means that the actual circulation volume in the early stages is relatively small, but there is potential inflation pressure in the long term.

Market Demand and User Data

Pi Network claims that there are over 60 million registered users worldwide. However:

• Official data from 2023 shows that approximately 12 million people have completed KYC verification.
• As of early 2025, on-chain data shows that the number of Mainnet wallets is approximately 9.11 million, accounting for only 15% of claimed users.

Daily active user data reflects actual demand:

• Approximately 20,000 active wallets daily
• The peak is expected to reach around 42,000 in January 2025.

The actual activity level is relatively low compared to the claimed user base.

Valuation Model and Possible Price Range

Based on the known information, an attempt can be made to establish a valuation model:

1. Market Capitalization Benchmarking:

• Benchmarking Dogecoin (40 billion USD market cap): Pi Coin could reach 4 USD
• Entering the top 50 by market cap ($2.7 billion): Pi Coin is approximately $0.27
• Entering the top 100 by market capitalization (USD 920 million): Pi coin is approximately USD 0.092

2. Off-exchange trading price reference:

• In some regions, private trading prices range from a few yuan to 10 US dollars.
• Some merchants accept Pi coin payments, implying a valuation of $1-3.

The valuation of Pi Coin will be influenced by the supply and demand game and confidence consensus:

• Supply side: Limited circulation in the early stage may drive up prices, facing inflation pressure in the long term.
• Demand side: Active user behavior will directly affect the market value trend.
• Market positioning: The ability to prove its own technical value will affect the valuation multiple.

Short-term fluctuations may be severe, it is recommended to pay attention to the following indicators:

• Trading volume and turnover rate in the first week of launch
• Mainnet unlock progress
• Status of Ecological Application Implementation
• Overall cryptocurrency market trends

The community cohesion of Pi Network is its uniqueness. The project has lasted longer than most crypto projects, forming a solid group of believers. This community loyalty, combined with a low initial circulation, may lead to significant price fluctuations in the early stages of its launch.