Bitcoin Spot ETF and Its Impact on Bull Run

This article analyzes and predicts the potential approval timeline of the Bitcoin Spot ETF and its impact on the cryptocurrency market.

1. ETF Approval and Bull Run Start Time Prediction

Based on historical experience and current market conditions, the possible timeline is as follows:

1. January 2024: Bitcoin Spot ETF application approved ( assuming the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates )
2. April 2024: ETF officially takes effect ( coinciding with Bitcoin halving )
3. July 2024: The Bitcoin bull run officially starts ( after the halving adjustment, with expectations of monetary easing being realized ).
4. September 2024: The Federal Reserve begins a rate cut cycle, implementing a monetary easing policy.

It is expected that the ETF will bring hundreds of billions of dollars in incremental funds to the market, but a true bull run still requires a supportive macroeconomic environment.

2. Market Performance Predictions After ETF Approval

Based on the historical experience of gold ETFs being approved, the Bitcoin ETF may experience the following situations after approval:

1. There will be a continuous upward expectation through the pre-market.
2. There will be a slight rise after formal approval.
3. A significant pullback may occur shortly after the ETF begins trading, potentially falling below the previous price.

The ETF alone is not enough to directly initiate a bull run. The current economic environment and tight monetary policy make continuous capital inflow difficult. There is a high possibility of maintaining a high level of volatility, but the duration is limited.

The real bull run still requires the following conditions:

1. SEC approves Spot Bitcoin ETF
2. Bitcoin Halving
3. The monetary policy has shifted to easing, and market liquidity is abundant.

The approval of the ETF will bring more legitimacy to Bitcoin, allowing more investors to participate conveniently, which is beneficial for the long-term development of Bitcoin. However, the market performance in the short term still needs to be treated with caution and should not be overly optimistic.