Will the ancient Whale awaken and cause dumping?

Question

On Friday, 8 ancient addresses that had been dormant for 14 years and collectively held 80,000 Bitcoins suddenly activated, triggering a panic sell-off in the market. According to analysis by Coinbase executive Conor Grogan, these addresses likely belong to an independent Miner from 2011, who had accumulated 180 Blocks of Mining rewards that year and once held 200,000 Bitcoins, making him the fifth largest Whale in Bitcoin history.

What makes the market most uneasy is that its holding cost is only $1.76 per coin. Based on the current price of $108,000, the unrealized gains amount to as much as 61,000 times. Once sold, it will inevitably have a huge impact on the market. Considering that the German government’s sale of 49,858 Bitcoins in 2024 caused months of turbulence in the market (with a maximum decline of 32%), if this whale chooses to cash out, its potential selling pressure of 80,000 coins could cause an even more violent market tsunami.

A data study by Glassnode in 2020 showed that there is only a 0.5% chance that Bitcoin that has not moved for ten years will re-enter market circulation, which leads to addresses holding coins for more than ten years (with no transaction records) being generally regarded as permanently lost. So, why do "sleeping" Bitcoins suddenly awaken? Currently, there are three main versions circulating widely in the market:

A Chinese national with the surname Deng controlled 80,000 Bitcoins and was previously sentenced to 16.5 years in prison for illegal fundraising and mining. During his imprisonment, he lost the right to dispose of his assets, but this year he was released early through special channels.
Ancient miners unexpectedly retrieved the hard drive that stored the private keys.
The super force driving the rise of Bitcoin in this round is a coordinated party with a certain whale. They had accumulated a large amount of low-priced chips before the pump, and this activation of Bitcoin aims to test market reactions, reduce the market's sensitivity to large fluctuations, and prepare for the subsequent distribution of chips.

From the current situation, version three has the highest possibility, mainly for two reasons: first, the Whale "unexpectedly" obtained 80,000 Bitcoins and only transferred them to a new Address without further actions, which aligns with the usual security management behavior of large Bitcoin holders; second, after the news broke, the price in the Bitcoin secondary market only fell by 1.09%, indicating that smart money showed no signs of rushing to exit. These two points indicate that the Whale's intention for short-term selling is not obvious, and the super major force did not regard the sudden activation of the ancient Address as an uncontrollable factor.

On July 4th, U.S. President Trump officially signed the "Great and Beautiful Act" that he advocated, marking the implementation of a large-scale tax reduction and fiscal spending plan. The passage of this act means that the Trump administration has completely abandoned its fiscal tightening goals and has instead restarted and expanded the fiscal expansion policies from his first term. It is worth noting that compared to the $2.43 trillion increase in deficit resulting from the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" during Trump's first term, the current "Great and Beautiful Act" is expected to increase the federal fiscal deficit by as much as $5 trillion, significantly amplifying the scale of expansion.

Although the "Big Beautiful" bill may push the U.S. debt towards the cliff in the long run, in the short term, the "Big Beautiful" bill will make the individual income tax and estate tax reductions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, increase the standard deduction for single taxpayers by $1,000 and for married couples by $2,000 until 2028, and exempt tips, overtime pay, and part of auto loan interest from taxes, among other measures. These measures can increase residents' income, stimulate consumption, and boost the stock market in the short term, with effects comparable to direct cash payments.

In addition to fiscal expansion, adjustments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) of the banking system may become another potential significant benefit. On June 25, 2025, the Federal Reserve released a draft for public comment on the proposed revision of the SLR rules, considering lowering the eSLR requirement for large banks from 5% to 3.5%, and possibly excluding low-risk assets such as U.S. Treasury securities and central bank deposits from the leverage ratio calculation.

According to Treasury Secretary Becerra's forecast, the adjustment of the SLR is expected to be completed in the summer (June to August), which is anticipated to free up about $2 trillion in balance sheet space for large U.S. banks and lower the long-end yield of U.S. Treasury bonds by 30 to 50 basis points.

Currently, the macro policy mix in the United States is very clear: the new debt from the "Inflation Reduction Act" will be jointly undertaken by the banking system (through SLR adjustments) and the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" (mainly absorbing short-term debt), while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will provide foundational liquidity support.

This policy operates smoothly in a closed loop in the short term and is expected to continue supporting the strength of U.S. stocks and risk assets such as Bitcoin.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently still in a typical main upward wave phase, with short-term market noise only causing intraday level shakeouts. With the support of extreme collective consensus, there is no possibility of a deep adjustment for Bitcoin. It is expected that after a brief consolidation, the price will continue its upward trend. The long-term target remains at 127600-137500.