$179,000 Or $79,000? Bitcoin Faces Significant Cycle Changes, According to Analysts

A well-known cryptocurrency analyst has issued a severe cyclical warning that could determine the trajectory of Bitcoin throughout the rest of the summer. Dr. Cat, famous for using integrated analysis of the Ichimoku Cloud, Elliott Wave Theory, and exclusive time cycle forecasting, posted a complex scenario on X indicating that Bitcoin is currently at a critical inflection point - a final point that could determine whether the next major move is up to $179,000 or back down to $79,000. Bitcoin faces a decisive moment "If we establish a daily high between June 25 and 27," Dr. Cat began, referencing the window stemming from his Time Theory model, "and it turns out to be a lower high according to Elliott Wave Theory, then a lower low will follow." However, the implications go beyond short-term declines. "If a lower low appears, we will invalidate the weekly cycle, implying that there will be no bottom before mid-July to mid-August."

According to the forecast timeline, the earliest potential bottom is expected to occur between July 14 and August 17, with the main target range being from July 28 to August 3, combined with a ±2 week deviation. This timeline model aligns with the behavior of the chart around key Ichimoku levels. Dr. Cat emphasizes that Bitcoin is currently "retesting the weekly Tenkan Sen in a bearish direction," while also adding that the attempt to reclaim that level yesterday was unsuccessful: "The price touched the Tenkan Sen yesterday, but I see that it will open below that level today." Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen—the two main lines in the Ichimoku system—are not only flat; they are not convincing in structure despite a nominal 10% price increase. "This is not a real uptrend," one user noted, and Dr. Cat responded: "This is simply a neutral chart trying to reverse the bullish trend." He further explained that this neutrality means there is no guarantee of continued price increases or decreases, but cautioned that inaction or misplaced optimism at this stage could lead traders to face a persistent bearish situation. One of the most important technical levels lies just below the current price. "The super important support level is 93.2K (Kijun Sen weekly ) relatively close—and too close to hold if the time cycle occurs," Dr. Cat stated. Failing to reach that level may trigger a deeper reversal at the 3-week Kijun Sen, which has yet to be reached and is currently around 75K but on the rise. The entire downtrend is still "completely valid and has a real chance of occurring," unless Bitcoin surpasses the level of $110.6k after June 27. Such a move would invalidate both the time-based low peak structure and the wave, and negate the scenario before it occurs. But until then, Dr. Cat is urging traders to look beyond surface price fluctuations. "Most people look at whether the price is going up or down but don't look at how it happens," he said. Recalling his precise bullish stance in April and May—when others were waiting for a pullback—and his caution in early June, he emphasized the importance of reading the structure, not just the candles. "The weekly chart is just one candle away from a bullish TK cross, which implies a significant continuation of the uptrend. But I waited. Then, the market sold off," he reminded his followers. "Now it is relatively the same... a strong reversal happens close to the most possible invalidation, so everyone is being challenged and stuck at the limits." In summary, Dr. Cat's outlook remains balanced—but unstable. "I'm not telling you that I can read the future," he said. "I'm telling you that you need to distinguish between a neutral chart and a bullish chart, something that many people cannot do—and must face the consequences." With the converging time cycles and the Ichimoku Cloud structure flashing indecision, Bitcoin is currently at a binary crossroads. The next high or low could lock in a multi-week trend, with a far target of $179,000—or painfully down to $79,000—hanging in the balance. "This is just a neutral chart trying to turn bullish. It can definitely turn bullish quite soon, but until that happens, I will discuss whether it is 179K or 79K first with almost equal probability, and I caution about a completely valid scenario that could occur unless the chart turns bullish," Dr. Cat concluded.